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Thaloria

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 69

Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a winning handicap debut over C&D in January. Another good effort there when second in 7f claimer in March but unable to continue the good work since on turf. Hopes pinned on return to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 12428/0544 @ Newbury 05/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 128C8 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f Std 12912/12C8BHA60 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 142 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 60 parBHA67 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 67 · 7f Std 138 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 67 par20/0267OR 67C7 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 7f Std 142 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 67 parC5 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 74 · 7f Yie 134 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 74 par15/04C5OR 74BHA73 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 19 · OR 73 · 1m Gd 133 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 73 parBHA71 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 141 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 71 par29/0571OR 71projClass-projected finish: 14th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-29Down RoyalBHA7112th12th0
2026-05-24CurraghBHA7319th19th0
2026-04-15Leopardstown?6th6th0
2026-03-27Dundalk?2nd2nd0
2026-02-20DundalkBHA6713th13th0
2026-01-28DundalkBHA601st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0528/0115/0429/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 1-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20256th12/137%38%+0.01
05/08/20259th28/10%11%+0.11
12/12/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
28/01/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
20/02/202613th15/261%8%-0.53
27/03/20262nd40/10%83%+0.83
15/04/20266th28/10%67%+0.67
24/05/202619th22/10%0%0.00
29/05/202612th20/10%15%+0.15