The Bear Trap
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 61
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | BHA73 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Leopardstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-12-13 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-10-22 | Curragh | BHA71 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Curragh | BHA71 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2024 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.41 |
| 23/09/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/10/2024 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.17 |
| 22/10/2024 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 13/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 05/05/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |