Una Matata
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 64
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA71 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA71 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 45% | -0.40 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |