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10

Desert Of The Sea

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 46

Dundalk · SIS, Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who often pulls too hard but his record here isn't bad.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA43 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 43 · 7f Std 125 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 43 par17/1243OR 43BHA40 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 40 · 7f Std 122 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 40 parBHA42 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 42 par6/0242OR 42BHA42 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 42 parBHA42 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 42 · 7f Std 124 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 42 par20/0342OR 42BHA40 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f GF 122 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 40 · 7f211y Gd 122 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 40 par2/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 40 · 7f42y Goo 123 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 40 parC8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 35 · 7f Std 143 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 35 par10/09C8OR 35projClass-projected finish: 12th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Laytown?5th5th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA408th8th0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA4015th15th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA407th7th0
2026-03-20DundalkBHA427th7th0
2026-03-06DundalkBHA422nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/126/032/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 3-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20254th22/10%77%+0.77
28/01/20262nd18/15%92%+0.87
06/02/20263rd12/137%85%+0.48
06/03/20262nd7/282%92%+0.10
20/03/20267th8/158%54%-0.04
18/06/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
02/07/202615th11/142%0%-0.42
06/08/20268th33/10%56%+0.56
10/09/20265th80/10%50%+0.50