9
Hot To Foxtrot
6yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 50
Dundalk · SIS, Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA53 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | BHA52 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Down Royal | BHA54 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA53 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 2-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 16/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 03/12/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 03/08/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 21% | -0.26 |