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15

Jasmine Affanalis

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 54

Dundalk · SIS, Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended last campaign with victory at Tipperary and back to that sort of form when creditable second at Killarney. Found Leopardstown too competitive next time but this is less demanding. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 57 · 1m1f Yie 139 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 57 par31/0857OR 57BHA62 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m Std 132 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 142 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 60 par27/0360OR 60BHA60 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 142 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 59 · 1m31y Gd 141 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 59 par12/0559OR 59BHA61 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m Yie 131 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 par1/0761OR 61BHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 60 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 62 · 1m1f Goo 132 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 62 par6/0862OR 62projClass-projected finish: 10th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA6215th15th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA602nd2nd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA6113th13th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA6111th11th0
2026-05-12KillarneyBHA592nd2nd0
2026-04-24CorkBHA605th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0824/041/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 9-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/03/202610th66/10%31%+0.31
27/03/20267th18/15%54%+0.49
24/04/20265th5/174%76%+0.03
12/05/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
10/06/202611th4/179%29%-0.50
01/07/202613th9/153%29%-0.23
15/07/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
06/08/202615th12/137%33%-0.04