16
Kitty Bear
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 53
Dundalk · SIS, Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA42
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laytown | BHA64 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA68 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA69 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA69 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.42 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |