12
Polanco
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 47
Dundalk · SIS, Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Handicap (0-60) · 1m
#16
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 12.3 /10 (raw 12.4)
Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA50 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | BHA55 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Curragh | BHA60 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA63 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 11-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/09/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/09/2025 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 03/06/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |