9
Celtic Druid
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Dundalk · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | BHA67 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA65 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | BHA65 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Navan | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | BHA53 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 19/11/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 54% | -0.01 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 84% | +0.42 |
| 20/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |