Direct Approach
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69
Dundalk · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f
#11
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA100 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/2015 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 26/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |