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2

Kilcrea Rock

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80

Dundalk · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Largely consistent sort who finally got off the mark in 12-runner course maiden in May. Only sixth of 8 in handicap at Leopardstown (9f, good to firm) 8 weeks ago and hopes pinned on a step up in trip/first-time visor doing the trick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 09/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 1349/04C8C8 @ Navan 17/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m2f40y Goo 134 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m3f15y Hvy 134 · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 77 par22/09C8OR 77C8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 75 · 2m66y Goo 134 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 75 parC8 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 77 · 1m4f Yie 134 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 77 par16/10C8OR 77BHA77 @ Leopardstown 10/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 1m2f Gd 131 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA81 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 81 · 1m2f63y Yie 141 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 81 par18/0581OR 81C8 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 80 parBHA83 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m1f Goo 133 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 83 par23/0783OR 83projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23LeopardstownBHA836th6th0
2026-05-26Dundalk?1st1st0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA815th5th0
2026-05-10LeopardstownBHA772nd2nd0
2025-10-16Curragh?3rd3rd0
2025-10-09Thurles?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/049/1018/0523/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20257th11/486%33%-0.52
17/05/20257th4/179%33%-0.46
22/09/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
09/10/20254th9/153%70%+0.17
16/10/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
10/05/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
18/05/20265th10/382%60%-0.22
26/05/20261st16/583%100%+0.17
23/07/20266th11/271%29%-0.42