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Merlin The Wizard

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Dundalk · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f

#9

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a drop in grade when ending long losing run in a Limerick claimer in June before following up back in a handicap at Ballinrobe (1¼m) later that month. Unable to continue the good work since but his current mark reflects that. Cheekpieces worn last time discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA74 @ Leopardstown 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 74 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 74 par12/0474OR 74BHA74 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m1f133y Goo 134 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Curragh 24/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 74 · 1m Gd 134 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 74 par24/0574OR 74C7 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 1m3f210y Goo 139 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 72 parBHA72 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 1m1f163y Yie 132 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 72 par22/0672OR 72BHA78 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 78 · 1m123y Yie 119 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 78 parBHA78 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 78 · 1m98y Yie 128 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 78 par30/0778OR 78BHA77 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m4f Goo 141 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 77 parBHA76 @ Roscommon 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 76 · 1m4f17y Goo 136 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 76 par31/0876OR 76projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31RoscommonBHA766th6th0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA775th5th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA786th6th0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA789th9th0
2026-06-22BallinrobeBHA721st1st0
2026-06-10Limerick?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0410/0630/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength59%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20265th11/271%75%+0.04
08/05/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
24/05/20268th10/147%61%+0.14
10/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
22/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
28/07/20269th25/10%50%+0.50
30/07/20266th15/261%58%-0.02
15/08/20265th10/382%33%-0.49
31/08/20266th9/153%64%+0.12