Pavilion End
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74
Dundalk · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Apprentice Handicap · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA75 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA76 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cork | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 19/03/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/05/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 01/06/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |