IvyArcIvyArc
16

Alto Sax

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 51

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 70' Handicap (0-60) · 1m 2f 150y

#10

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has won twice in this grade already this year (including 1m handicap here). Gone close twice since, too, but found run of good form coming to a halt at Clonmel on Wednesday. RESERVE

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 45 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 45 par20/0545OR 45BHA44 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 44 · 1m1f190y Goo 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 44 parBHA50 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 50 · 1m4f Goo 132 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 50 par12/0650OR 50BHA50 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 50 · 1m1f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 50 parBHA50 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 50 · 1m3f103y Gd 132 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 50 par15/0750OR 50BHA52 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 52 parBHA52 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 52 · 1m20y Goo 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 52 par27/0852OR 52BHA51 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 51 · 1m2f10y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m1f168y Yie 133 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 51 par16/0951OR 51projClass-projected finish: 6th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA5111th11th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA516th6th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA522nd2nd0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA529th9th0
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA505th5th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA502nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/059/0727/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/05/20264th11/486%80%-0.06
05/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
12/06/20269th7/282%50%-0.32
09/07/20262nd6/168%95%+0.27
15/07/20265th10/382%71%-0.11
16/08/20269th8/158%33%-0.25
27/08/20262nd9/276%92%+0.15
05/09/20266th9/276%75%-0.01
16/09/202611th9/276%23%-0.53