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3

Doctor Grace

6yo Mare · 9-8 · OR 52

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 70' Handicap (0-60) · 1m 2f 150y

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who ended a long losing run at Roscommon in May. Well held at longish odds 3 completed starts since. Return of more established jockey suggests a bounce back could be on the cards, and she's potentially well treated off her lower all-weather mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA58 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m4f Std 140 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 58 par6/0358OR 58BHA58 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m2f150y Std 140 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 58 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 56 · 1m2f150y Std 126 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 56 par20/0356OR 56BHA54 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f Std 137 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 54 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 53 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 53 par23/0453OR 53BHA65 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 65 · 1m4f46y Gd 135 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA70 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 70 · 1m1f100y Yie 140 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par12/0670OR 70BHA70 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 70 · 1m2f194y Gd 140 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 70 parBHA68 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f145y Goo 139 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 68 par4/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 10th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA6812th12th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA7011th11th0
2026-06-12Gowran ParkBHA7011th11th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA700
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA651st1st0
2026-04-23DundalkBHA532nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0310/0412/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/202610th11/142%31%-0.11
13/03/20264th12/137%77%+0.40
20/03/20269th14/126%33%+0.07
10/04/20265th7/163%64%+0.00
23/04/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
11/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
12/06/202611th22/10%29%+0.29
24/06/202611th33/10%29%+0.29
04/09/202612th40/10%15%+0.15