IvyArcIvyArc
14

He Knows When

6yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 41

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 70' Handicap (0-60) · 1m 2f 150y

#16

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who hit the frame in 4 consecutive handicaps (including twice at this course) in 2023/24. Off for 26 months prior to finishing 10¾ lengths eighth of 21 at Navan (40/1) earlier this month. Should at least be better for that run.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Gowran Park 29/07/2023 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f Sft 133 · below its mark29/07/2023 · OR 62 par29/0762OR 62BHA58 @ Leopardstown 24/08/2023 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 58 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark24/08/2023 · OR 58 parBHA60 @ Dundalk 22/09/2023 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m2f150y Std 133 · beat its mark22/09/2023 · OR 60 par22/0960OR 60BHA57 @ Dundalk 08/11/2023 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · beat its mark08/11/2023 · OR 57 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 08/12/2023 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m Std 131 · beat its mark08/12/2023 · OR 53 par8/1253OR 53BHA52 @ Dundalk 02/02/2024 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 52 · 1m2f150y Std 130 · beat its mark02/02/2024 · OR 52 parBHA49 @ Leopardstown 20/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 49 · 1m1f Goo 126 · beat its mark20/06/2024 · OR 49 par20/0649OR 49BHA50 @ Navan 13/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 50 · 1m2f40y Goo 127 · beat its mark13/07/2024 · OR 50 parBHA43 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 43 · 1m2f10y Gd 127 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 43 par5/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA438th8th0
2024-07-13NavanBHA504th4th0
2024-06-20LeopardstownBHA493rd3rd0
2024-02-02DundalkBHA524th4th0
2023-12-08DundalkBHA534th4th0
2023-11-08DundalkBHA578th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/078/1120/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/202310th20/10%36%+0.36
24/08/202315th22/10%7%+0.07
22/09/20239th33/10%38%+0.38
08/11/20238th22/10%46%+0.46
08/12/20234th9/153%77%+0.24
02/02/20244th9/153%77%+0.24
20/06/20243rd16/116%85%+0.69
13/07/20244th14/126%84%+0.58
05/09/20268th40/10%65%+0.65