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5yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 60

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 70' Handicap (0-60) · 1m 2f 150y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner on the all-weather in the UK. Hasn't kicked on from her win at Leopardstown in April, very slowly away when well held at Brighton last time. Does at least benefit from an ease in grade (third in similar company here earlier in the year).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m2f150y Std 137 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 67 par28/1167OR 67BHA64 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m2f150y Std 134 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 64 parBHA61 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 61 par13/0261OR 61BHA59 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f150y Std 142 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 59 par1/0459OR 59BHA57 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 57 · 1m1f Yie 146 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 57 parBHA66 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m2f Gd 126 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 66 par15/0566OR 66BHA65 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 22 · OR 65 · 1m1f Goo 135 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m1f207y Goo 134 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 64 par24/086OR 64projClass-projected finish: 12th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Brighton66th6th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA6516th16th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA668th8th0
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA571st1st0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA595th5th0
2026-03-27DundalkBHA593rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1127/0315/0524/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/202512th50/10%15%+0.15
17/12/202512th40/10%15%+0.15
13/02/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
27/03/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
01/04/20265th10/147%60%+0.13
15/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
15/05/20268th12/137%30%-0.07
06/08/202616th40/10%29%+0.29
24/08/20266th33/10%17%+0.17