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4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 50

Dundalk · BAR 1 Betting 'Bet 10 Get 70' Handicap (0-60) · 1m 2f 150y

#14

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went as close as she has when runner-up in 6f novice here on second career start. Slow starts haven't helped her cause in 7f/1m turf handicaps of late. Still relatively lightly raced on this surface, though, could outrun her odds if staying the longer trip (sister to smart 9f winner).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 25/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 69 · 6f Goo 129 · below its mark25/07/2025 · OR 69 par25/07C8OR 69C8 @ Roscommon 19/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f111y Gd 129 · below its mark19/08/2025 · OR 66 parBHA64 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 64 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 64 par12/1164OR 64BHA62 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f205y Sft 132 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 62 parBHA61 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f94y Goo 131 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 par18/0561OR 61BHA56 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 56 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA56 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 56 · 7f42y Goo 139 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 56 par6/0856OR 56BHA56 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f195y Goo 139 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA55 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 55 · 1m20y Goo 137 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 55 par2/0955OR 55projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02NavanBHA5511th11th0
2026-08-25BellewstownBHA5610th10th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA566th6th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA5611th11th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA6113th13th0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA627th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0711/046/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20257th16/116%63%+0.47
19/08/20256th13/266%44%-0.21
12/11/20259th16/116%38%+0.23
11/04/20267th33/10%54%+0.54
18/05/202613th50/10%14%+0.14
03/08/202611th50/10%33%+0.33
06/08/20266th12/137%69%+0.32
25/08/202610th22/10%36%+0.36
02/09/202611th16/116%33%+0.18