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Navy Guitar

7yo Gelding · 10-0

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Maiden · 1m 2f 150y

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest winning hurdler. Typically made the running when fair fifth of 13 on Flat/stable debut at Gowran (1¾m, 66/1), headed over 1f out/beaten 4¾ lengths. At least worth a go over shorter on that evidence and may outrun his odds if again allowed to dictate.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2024 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR - · 2m Yie 16626/12C8C8 @ Wexford 17/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/03/2025 · OR 95 parBHA93 @ Tipperary 14/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 93 · 2m190y Goo 161 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 93 par14/0593OR 93BHA92 @ Sligo 10/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 92 · 2m1f157y Goo 160 · beat its mark10/06/2025 · OR 92 parBHA102 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 102 · 2m130y Gd 158 · below its mark28/07/2025 · OR 102 par28/07102OR 102BHA100 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 2m2f200y Goo 160 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 100 parC0 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f165y Yie 16619/09C?BHA100 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m Yie 168 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 100 parC8 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Yie 1351/09C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Gowran Park?5th5th0
2025-10-11FairyhouseBHA1009th11th−2
2025-09-19Downpatrick?5th5th0
2025-08-22KilbegganBHA1005th7th−2
2025-07-28GalwayBHA10214th17th−2
2025-06-10SligoBHA921st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1210/0619/091/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/12/20249th150/10%50%+0.50
17/03/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
14/05/20255th7/282%71%-0.10
10/06/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
28/07/202514th11/142%32%-0.11
22/08/20255th5/174%56%-0.18
19/09/20255th9/276%60%-0.16
11/10/20259th10/147%47%-0.01
01/09/20265th66/10%67%+0.67