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8

Numantia

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 82

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Maiden · 1m 2f 150y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well-bred son of St Mark's Basilica. Shaped well all 3 starts to date. Latest finishing 1¾ lengths third of 6 at the Curragh (1½m) 9 weeks ago, unable to sustain a big move into contention from his less-than-ideal position. Since gelded and looks the one to beat back down in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 13423/05C8C8 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 13426/06C8C8 @ Curragh 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m4f GF 13419/07C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Curragh?3rd3rd0
2026-06-26Curragh?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Curragh?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0526/0619/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -26.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20264th8/158%79%+0.21
26/06/20262nd2/189%90%+0.01
19/07/20263rd11/893%60%-0.33