5
Crepuscolo
6yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 40
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes · 1m 2f 206y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vaal | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-02-01 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 14/08/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |