2
Firealley
9yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 88
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes · 1m 2f 206y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength62%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |