1
Obsidian Star
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 86
Fairview · Racehorse Owners Association Plate (3 Year-Olds) · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 1.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -11.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |