7

Rocking In Rio

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 61

Fairview · Racehorse Owners Association Plate (3 Year-Olds) · 6f 211y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

4/1, career best when winning 5-runner maiden at this course (6.5f) 23 days ago. Easy to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairview 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13216/01C8C8 @ Fairview 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13230/01C8C8 @ Fairview 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f103y Sft 13220/03C8C8 @ Fairview 03/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1323/04C8C8 @ Fairview 22/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13222/04C8C8 @ Fairview 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 6f102y Std 12826/08C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Fairview?1st1st0
2026-04-22Fairview?4th4th0
2026-04-03Fairview?5th5th0
2026-03-20Fairview?4th4th0
2026-01-30Fairview?5th5th0
2026-01-16Fairview?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0130/0120/033/0422/0426/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength67%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20264th18/15%40%+0.35
30/01/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
20/03/20264th28/10%57%+0.57
03/04/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
22/04/20264th40/10%25%+0.25
26/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24