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5

Enchanting Choice

6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 85

Fairview · Betway Friendly City Stakes · 1m 209y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eight wins from 31 Flat runs. 3 wins from 8 runs this year. 2/1, didn't need to be at best when winning 9-runner listed race at this course (9.9f) 35 days ago by ¾ length from Bakwena.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fairview 07/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Std 1287/11C5C0 @ Fairview 16/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 131C5 @ Fairview 30/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13230/01C5C5 @ Fairview 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f210y 131C5 @ Fairview 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1313/04C5C0 @ Fairview 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m209y Std 134C5 @ Fairview 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Std 1375/06C5C1 @ Fairview 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS14/08C1projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Fairview?1st-3th+4
2026-07-10Fairview?3rd-1th+4
2026-06-05Fairview?4th4th0
2026-05-15Fairview?1st1st0
2026-04-03Fairview?2nd2nd0
2026-03-06Fairview?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/116/035/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20253rd4/696%67%-0.30
16/01/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
30/01/20263rd3/184%50%-0.34
06/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
03/04/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
15/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
05/06/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
10/07/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
14/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11