3
Lanciafiamme
5yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 89
Fairview · Betway Friendly City Stakes · 1m 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |