5
Genovefa
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 79
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |