8
Iona Castle
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 68
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 85% | +0.02 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/04/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |