6
Roaming Spirit
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 78
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Vaal | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 23/12/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 27/01/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 28/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |