2
Splicethemainbrace
5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 78
Fairview · Betway Pinnacle Stakes (F & M) · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 13th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |