10
Basingstoke
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 52
Fairview · Betway Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 4f 214y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength62%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 9th | −0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |