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9

Clairwood Rose

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 64

Fairview · Betway Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 4f 214y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eighteen runs since last win in 2025. 8/1, respectable second of 9 in minor event at this course (6f) 9 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Vaal 17/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/01C6C7 @ Vaal 14/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Vaal 28/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS28/05C6C6 @ Turffontein 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Fairview 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1273/07C8C6 @ Fairview 17/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 5f103y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 12031/07C8C5 @ Fairview 10/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS9/09C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Fairview?2nd0th+2
2026-08-10Fairview?4th2nd+2
2026-07-31Fairview?3rd4th−1
2026-07-17Fairview?6th6th+0
2026-07-03Fairview?5th6th−1
2026-06-11Turffontein?8th8th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0111/0631/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/202612th11/271%15%-0.56
14/05/20269th40/10%33%+0.33
28/05/20269th5/174%11%-0.63
11/06/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
03/07/20265th18/15%64%+0.58
17/07/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
31/07/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
10/08/20264th22/10%57%+0.57
09/09/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22