11
Japanese Garden
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 64
Fairview · Betway Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 4f 214y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 10th | 10th | +0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 13% | -0.69 |
| 17/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |