12
Mrs Shackleton
6yo Mare · 8-6 · OR 74
Fairview · Betway Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 4f 214y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/02/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |