5
Spirit Of Nical
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 66
Fairview · Betway Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 4f 214y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Durbanville | ? | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 11th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.04 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 13/01/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |