Serrania
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |