6
Araucano
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 73
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 08/03/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |