1
Carcone
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |