8
Rusty Pistol
6yo Horse · 8-13 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 20/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 30/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 17/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |