2
Sofocles
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |