3
Valiant Winter
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 14/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |