6
Expert Witness
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 56
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-06-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2023 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |