4
Henry's Buddy
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 66
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |