Free To Roam
6yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 30/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |