3
Windrush
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |