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4

Demar's Legacy

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 90

Gulfstream · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 15/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark15/01/2025 · OR 76 par15/01C8OR 76C8 @ Gulfstream 22/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Gulfstream 20/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Fas 120 · below its mark20/03/2025 · OR 86 par20/03C8OR 86C8 @ Gulfstream 15/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark15/06/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Gulfstream 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 5f 124 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 87 par3/08C8OR 87C7 @ Gulfstream 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 97 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 97 parC6 @ Gulfstream 15/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/01/2026 · OR 92 par15/01C6OR 92C5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 91 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 91 parC0 @ Gulfstream 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f Gd 11911/04C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-11Gulfstream?6th6th0
2026-02-14Tampa Bay Downs?3rd1st+2
2026-01-15Gulfstream?1st0th+1
2025-10-04Gulfstream?1st1st0
2025-08-03Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2025-06-15Gulfstream?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0115/0615/0111/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20252nd13/891%86%-0.06
22/02/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
20/03/20256th11/486%29%-0.57
15/06/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
03/08/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
04/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
15/01/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
14/02/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
11/04/20266th16/116%0%-0.16