Su Win
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 92
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -25.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |