Tree C's Kai

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 95

Gulfstream · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-18	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-14	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-05-09	Gulfstream	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-04-11	Gulfstream	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-03-14	Gulfstream	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-02-07	Gulfstream	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength52%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/11/2025	3rd	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34
18/12/2025	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
23/01/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
07/02/2026	5th	25/1	0%	43%	+0.43
14/03/2026	6th	7/1	63%	29%	-0.35
11/04/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40
09/05/2026	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
14/06/2026	6th	33/1	0%	17%	+0.17
18/07/2026	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00