1
Basilica Light
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |