4
Evanora
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 73
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |